Today's Vote

I called you out, Cambo, and you respond with more patronising opinion dressed up as fact.

Nowhere in your OP did you reveal that you work for the IFS - which is funded by the EU.

To quote you: "yawn".

The one thing I didn't mention was our reliance on foreign capital - much of it heading towards London and helping to make housing unaffordable. If we Brexited and international investors got cold feet we'd have to start focusing on building a proper economy again. As I say I'd rather a government committed to these things but leaving might not be all bad.

As for what will happen, it's weird. Last week I'd started to think it might be 50-50. Now things seem to be heading back towards Remain. Although a few anecdotes on the day suggest it could be close!

I called you out, Cambo, and you respond with more patronising opinion dressed up as fact.

Nowhere in your OP did you reveal that you work for the IFS - which is funded by the EU.

To quote you: "yawn".

You didn't call me out at all. You have said you can discuss me because I was wrong about a very different issue before. I said that doesn't follow unless you can point to specific assumptions you think are wrong now and offer better assumptions.

And the second accusation was that if I wasn't wrong because I was stupid.. I was wrong because I didn't really believe what I said and was just doing what I was told. And I said that would have to be an attack on academic independence more generally as the ERC and ESRC and other equivalent research councils fund the majority of basic academic research. And that it didn't make sense because I would never have an incentive to say something I didn't believe.

I think I responded appropriately. It is you who get called out. Don't address the issues I raise. And who come back with more personal attacks.

The other thing of significance is what happens to politics from tomorrow? It could very easily be carnage depending on the result.

I can see now why you used the alias "Random Comment" Mr Economist, just sums up some of the expert views out there.

Like most of the "Experts" after the debt/leverage crisis in 2008/9 they had so many excuses as to why they didn't ring the alarm bells, in truth like banking its a heard mentality.
As for the independence of the IFS the director Paul Johnson career to date sums up his cosy relationship to HMTreasury and the Government.


PS your opening post on this thread has probably done more to discredit you than appearing in an infomecrial on WalesonLine

To be fair I don't think the IFS should just be rubbished. Whatever their funding arrangements they have a long record of producing well respected and independent findings. They don't belong with credit rating agencies, the Treasury etc.

i read cambo's OP as a statement that if you are basing your decision (in the referendum) on the economy then you will vote to remain. Cambo was clear that there are many others reasons why people will vote e.g. immigration (ironic an island nation will see immigration as an issue).

I would also laugh at the claim that the IFS is anything other than impartial. Its top brass may be (arguably) centre right but the researchers lower down tend to be centre left oxbridge/LSE so they are hardly going to be in the back pocket of the current government. Notwithstanding that, political leanings never come into it, certainly not in any of the papers I've read.

I voted remain by the way

Maybe I'm the only one watching but I fear the worst..............

Not the only one Frank, I'm a bit worried as well.

I'm hoping London will save the day, it's very pro remain generally and there are a lot of people. Don't know if it'll be enough though.