Cardiff Waterside

http://www.propertyweek.com/news/hat-tr ... 84.article

When I saw this, I got rather excited. I thought maybe 3 Assembly Square was full, which may have catalysed some new development. But nope, its just 3 fairly smallish lettings - less than 30,000 square feet in total, and all in Caspian Point. CreditSafe is a renewal too - not sure if the others are.

7% vacancy rate across the estate is flattered by 2 big buildings let to to single occupiers: Atradius and Ty Hywel. Strip those out, and the remaining 3 parts of the scheme (Caspian Point, 3 Assembly Square, Scott Harbour) are probably more like 15% vacant. Not disastrous, but certainly a real disincentive for further development - unless some BIG pre-let clients come a-knocking.

You have to wonder what they are going to do with all that land, especially with everything that's going on in the city centre plus the BBC Wales decision not to move to this part of the city.

I did notice earlier that there is a CCC Planning dept notice about 'Assembly Square 5' affixed to one of the grey lamp posts diagonally opposite the red brick National Assembly building.

I did try to read it, but alas, twas bitingly cold and the notice was written in 'planning speak' which is indecipherable to the average Joe, so I couldn't be bothered.

I suspect it's something mundane like an application to extend the time limit for a major HQ building on the site of the current tarmac surface.

Yeah they have recently asked for a further 5 year extension. I believe the one you saw was for 5 Pierhead Street. But I think they asked for extensions for all the building plots.

Total extant permissions exist for something like a further 500,000 square feet of space, more than doubling the existing estate. I can't see it in the next 15 years if I'm honest.

Thinking for that long term horizon, I think the BBC would have been a bigger game changed if it had moved to the Bay. You'd then have had a proper media "hub" area - potentially supporting further media incubator space, a hotel, a bit of A1/A3 etc. I would have put the BBC not on the 1 and 2 Assembly Square sites as some suggested. I think it would have been a bit of a struggle in terms of layout, although it would have water views in 2 directions. More practical would have been one of the pierhead street sites - probably the one diagonally opposite Ty Hywel. That has permission for a building of something like 200,000 square feet, about the size the BBC wants when you include ancillary space. I would then have looked at something mixed use on the remaining pierhead street site, including a hotel tower (up to 15 storeys), and some residential, as well as offices.

My view is the Central Square scheme is actually strong enough to develop without the BBC - although it would have taken longer. It really is prime location, and there is quite a lot of demand from other occupiers building now. Can understand why BBC chose it; for access its first-rate.

Here is another article on Capital Waterside -

http://www.commercialnewsmedia.com/archives/33286

It does refer to only 8% of the full Capital Waterside estate of 460,000 sq foot being unlet. It then goes on to say expect more deals to be announced in the coming months. On the basis that 8% of 460,000 is 36,800 that means that any deals are likely to be fairly small in size unless they are due to announce a HQ setting up in Cardiff and the imminent construction of the next phase.....

It does look as though development activity has shifted to the city centre for the next few years. I think it will need a catalyst to bring this back to life as an office scheme and that means either a big name pre-let or the commencement of a tram line etc. Perhaps the proposed upgrade of the Eastern link road will make a difference (although from what I can make out this won't 'finish' the link road just improve one small stretch).

If transport links were better the Pierhead St site would be the right size for a convention centre/arena with the added benefit of a car park next door. But I can't see any commercial operator wanting to move out of the city centre.

Here is another article on Capital Waterside -

http://www.commercialnewsmedia.com/archives/33286

It does refer to only 8% of the full Capital Waterside estate of 460,000 sq foot being unlet. It then goes on to say expect more deals to be announced in the coming months. On the basis that 8% of 460,000 is 36,800 that means that any deals are likely to be fairly small in size unless they are due to announce a HQ setting up in Cardiff and the imminent construction of the next phase.....

It does look as though development activity has shifted to the city centre for the next few years. I think it will need a catalyst to bring this back to life as an office scheme and that means either a big name pre-let or the commencement of a tram line etc. Perhaps the proposed upgrade of the Eastern link road will make a difference (although from what I can make out this won't 'finish' the link road just improve one small stretch).

If transport links were better the Pierhead St site would be the right size for a convention centre/arena with the added benefit of a car park next door. But I can't see any commercial operator wanting to move out of the city centre.

I'm curious about two of those lettings. Sapiens are a software house that operate in the finance sector and Creditsafe are a finance sector organisation, so why choose the bay if there are enterprise zone incentives on offer in the city centre ? It just goes to show that the likes of Central Square and Capital Quarter are not going to mop up all of the demand for those sectors even though they are in the city centre. Was the rent offer much cheaper maybe ?

Creditsafe have been there for years already - probably not worth moving to save a few £s on business rates. Te rent for Caspian Point is probably £18 a square foot, comparable to Capital Quarter, and lower than the £21-22 in Callaghan Square, so no savings (or big cost there) either.

Not sure if relevant, they are currently refurbishing an office in the Regus building that was recently vacated, may be for the above.

I never thought I'd see the day, but another of the units under Celestia on Pierhead St has been let (even though there are big To Let signs still outside).I asked the guy who worked in the Co-op what the workmen were doing (kitting out) next door and he said it was for a letting agency. That leaves just (the medium sized) one left to the left of the Co-op as you look at Celestia. It's only taken 8 years or so to get this far!

Don't think it is a letting agency - think its a café!