2015 General Election

I think UKIP are going to surprise a lot of people. Most people i have spoken to in Cardiff Central are going to vote UKIP.

I'm relieved to say that I haven't met a single person who admits to planning to vote for UKIP.

My election predictions:

Labour 27
Tories 7
Plaid 5
LibDems 1

Surely Lab at least 28. Cardiff North and Cardiff Central a forgone conclusion, with an outside chance of The Vale too, unless you're assming Ynys Mon goes to PC, but that would still put The Tories on 6.

I notice no-one seems much interested in the point I made, that the UK could be on the verge of a constitutional revolution with profund consequences for Wales. More powers have been promised to Scotland and the Scots are certainly expecting them to be delivered. At the same time the Conservative Party, once the party of the union, now seems preoccupied with saving Tory England. Here's a piece by Iain Martin

http://www.capx.co/the-tories-are-working-for-an-snp-victory/

The Tories want English votes for English laws. Federalism (and full fiscal autonomy) could be coming to Wales whether we want it or not. Why is no-one in Wales waking up to the implications of this?

I completely agree that it's more likely to be the Tory Party and UKIP that break up the United KIngdom rather than the SNP or Plaid. An English Parliament or EVEL would finish it off pretty quickly.

I'm relieved to say that I haven't met a single person who admits to planning to vote for UKIP

Good evening Lyndon!

On Ukip - anecdotes don't really matter much. However if people aren't admitting it to supporting Ukip that actually worries me more. The polls have them on 10%+, if there's a shy factor it could be 15%.

So Sturgeon would prefer Cameron as prime minister eh. Does this change much norfathaborda?

So Sturgeon would prefer Cameron as prime minister eh. Does this change much norfathaborda?

Not wishing to sound rude old chap, but perhaps you should ask the telegraph to find out what they want you to think - they appear to be leading and feeding people like you.

so what have we seen so far:-

The Tories
1. making grand statements about inheritance tax when it accounts for only 2% or so of government receipts
2. the deficit is £80bn or so but they are looking at cuts of around £30bn when growth of 2.5% per annum should see around 60-70bn of that eroded by the end of the next parliament.
3. Dave Cameron has a shiny head. honestly
4. Right to Buy, which I could never understand why the left were so against this form of wealth distribution through the tax system - its a conservative policy so it must be bad despite the fact we don't change the housing stock, the demand for housing or anything else other than legal ownership.

Labour
1. lots of noise about zero hour contracts when they make up around 2% of employed people and two thirds of those are happy with the situation. not only that, many Labour MPs are happy to employ workers on zero hour contracts.
2. Ed Milliband cannot eat a bacon sandwich. good grief.
3. £30bn cuts like the Tories in a vain attempt to look economically credible, which they probably aren't. Cuts of that magnitude are probably not needed by the end of this Parliament

Plaid
Their manifesto was like a wishlist and is quite easy to put together when you have no chance of getting in to power

UKIP
All I can say is that Farage is comedy gold and was by far the most entertaining in the leaders debate. The best bit was that the NHS is struggling because Africans have HIV.

LibDems
probably the most sensible manifesto with the fairest cuts to government spend but have little chance due to loss of the student vote

as long as our politicians treat the whole jamboree as the punch and judy show that it is then the electorate will no doubt do the same. The undeniable fact is most people are so disenfranchised with politics and the way that there are ad hominem attacks rather than promotion of policy and having courage in their convictions. I refer to the stories of Cameron's shiny head and Millibands inability to eat a bacon butty - as if it matters.

Ed Miliband's inability to gracefully eat a bacon sandwich means nothing to anyone with any modicum of intelligence.

Absolutely right but unfortunately the problem with common sense is that it's not so common. who cares how he eats his food, it's his policies he should be measured on